Furnaces are kicking on across the region, and with them comes the annual question: what’s winter going to cost this year?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Winter Fuels Outlook last week, and the answer depends a lot on how you heat your home. For many households here, there’s some good news. For others, bills are headed up.
The Forecast at a Glance
EIA’s outlook covers November 2026 through March 2027:
| If your home heats mainly with… | Expected change in winter spending |
|---|---|
| Natural gas | about 9% lower |
| Propane | about 3% lower |
| Electricity (heat pump or electric furnace) | about 4% higher |
| Heating oil | about 21% higher |
Why the split? EIA points to lower prices for natural gas and propane, while prices for electricity and heating oil are rising. It expects winter temperatures in the Midwest and South to be similar to last year, so price is driving most of the difference.
What It Means Here
If you heat with natural gas, as many homes in Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana do, your heating bill may be a bit lighter this winter. Your electric bill is a separate story, though. Lights, appliances and your furnace’s blower all run on electricity, and electricity prices have been rising across the region.
If you heat with electricity, expect higher bills. More than 40% of U.S. homes heat with electricity, and EIA forecasts their bills rising about 4% on average this winter.
The bigger picture on electricity prices: EIA expects wholesale electricity prices in the PJM grid, which serves most of Ohio and Northern Kentucky, to be about 41% higher in 2026 than in 2025, the largest increase of any region. EIA cites weather, including January’s storms and July’s heat, as a major factor. We’ve covered the forces behind that all year, from Ohio’s June rate changes to PJM’s capacity shortfall.
How to Keep Winter Bills in Check
No matter how you heat:
- Seal the leaks. Weatherstripping doors, caulking windows and sealing attic openings are some of the cheapest ways to cut heating costs.
- Use a programmable or smart thermostat. Lowering the temperature while you sleep or are away adds up over a long winter.
- Get your heating system serviced. A furnace tune-up or heat pump check now can prevent efficiency losses and mid-January breakdowns.
- Heat pump owners: keep outdoor units clear of snow and leaves, and change filters regularly.
- Ask about budget billing. Most utilities offer levelized billing that spreads costs evenly through the year, so a cold January doesn’t wreck the budget.
Where Solar Fits in Winter (Honestly)
Let’s be straight: winter is solar’s weakest season. Days are short, the sun is low, and snow can cover panels for a few days at a time. In central Ohio, a December day delivers less than half the usable sunlight of an average day across the year. Solar won’t erase a winter heating bill.
Here’s where it does help:
- Solar is a year-round investment. Most of a system’s production comes from spring through early fall. Measured over a full year, that’s what lowers your total electricity costs, including the electricity your furnace blower, lights and appliances use every winter month.
- Your utility’s credit rules matter. Depending on where you live, excess solar from sunny months may earn credits on your bill. How much they’re worth varies by utility. We explain the differences for Kentucky and Indiana.
- Batteries matter in winter. Ice storms are the outages that last longest here. A home battery keeps essentials running, including a gas furnace’s blower, and solar can recharge it when the sun returns. (Here’s our winter storm checklist.)
- Now is a good time to plan. A system designed and permitted over the winter can be producing when spring arrives. We explained the timing in Can You Install Solar Panels in Winter?
Getting Ready for Winter With Solar?
If you already have solar, check your monitoring app and Wi-Fi connection before the cold sets in, and make sure your battery’s storm mode is on. Read up on what to expect when snow covers your panels.
If you’re considering solar, Icon Solar has helped homeowners across Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana go solar since 2009. We’ll use a full year of your bills to show realistic savings, including what to expect in winter.
Learn how many solar panels your home may need, explore the Franklin WH home battery, or request your free quote. You can also call us at (866) 396-4266.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will heating bills be higher this winter?
It depends on your heating fuel. EIA’s 2026–27 outlook expects spending to fall about 9% for homes heating with natural gas and about 3% for propane, while homes heating with electricity should see about 4% higher bills and heating oil homes about 21% higher.
Why are electric heating bills going up this winter?
EIA attributes the increase mainly to higher electricity prices. In the PJM grid that serves most of Ohio and Northern Kentucky, EIA expects 2026 wholesale electricity prices to be about 41% higher than in 2025.
Do solar panels work in winter?
Yes, but they produce much less than in summer because of short days, a low sun angle and occasional snow cover. Most of a system’s annual production comes from spring through early fall.
Can solar panels lower my winter energy bill?
Solar reduces how much electricity you buy over the course of a year, which lowers your electric bills. Depending on your utility, credits from excess summer production may help offset winter use. Solar won’t eliminate winter heating costs on its own.
How can I lower my heating bill this winter?
Seal air leaks, use a programmable or smart thermostat, have your furnace or heat pump serviced, and ask your utility about budget billing to spread costs evenly.
